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Public anger is on the rise in Sri Lanka as the country’s worst economic crisis in 70 years plunges its citizens into a dire situation.
As angry protesters poured into streets in defiance of the 36-hour-long curfew on Sunday, 3 April, in what is being dubbed as the country's "Arab Spring" moment, all 26 members of the Sri Lankan Cabinet resigned en masse, save for Mahinda Rajapaksa, who will continue to be the prime minister and his brother Gotabaya, who is the president.
But now the question is – what next for Sri Lanka?
Far from improving matters, the attempt of a Cabinet reconfiguration only escalated the crisis in the government further.
On 4 April, four people – Dinesh Gunawardena, Johnston, Fernando, and GL Peiris and Ali Sabry – all of whom have been a part of the older Cabinet, were inducted into the new Cabinet.
But just a day after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa replaced his brother Basil with Ali Sabry, the new finance minister quit his post on Tuesday.
Expectedly, common citizens and the Opposition are far from being placated, with local media reporting gatherings of protesters outside the residences of almost all government MPs asking them to resign immediately.
Opposition MP Udaya Gammanpila called the new Cabinet "old wine in a new bottle", while Sajith Premadasa, Leader of Opposition, called it all a "melodrama to dupe people".
"We want resignations and then we want a political model that works", he tweeted.
As Sri Lanka faces 17 percent inflation rate owing to critical shortfall of foreign currency, the sentiment on ground is that of seeking a change.
But can there be a change in leadership at this given moment?
Even as the president appeared to be in damage control mode, inviting members of the Opposition to accept portfolios in the new Cabinet, the Rajapaksa family's grip over the government seemed to be weakening, with the ruling coalition losing majority on 5 April, as 41 legislators exited the alliance.
Among them were 14 MPs from the government's main coalition partner, the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP).
As the ruling SLPP tries to hold on to its 113 seats so that it can continue to be in power with a simple majority, M Sathiya Moorthy, head of the Observer Research Foundation’s (ORF's) Chennai Initiative, points out that bringing in new leadership will still be easier said than done.
"The alternative is to hold fresh elections and that can happen either just six months before the conclusion of the term of the present Parliament. Or, the Parliament has to pass the resolution for new elections," he added.
Recently, in an interview to Times of India, former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is one of the veteran leaders in the Opposition, also raised doubts about the possibility of fresh elections.
“Electioneering will take four to five months. Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan Rupee may further depreciate down to 500, perhaps even 1,000 to a dollar. We can’t afford that,” he had said.
There are also concerns around whether the economic crisis can also eventually lead to a constitutional crisis.
The last time that country faced a constitutional crisis was in 2018, when then President Maithripala Sirisena appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister before formally dismissing the incumbent PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, resulting in two concurrent prime ministers.
But ORF's Moorthy said the country may not have to face the worst case scenario.
"It can take such a shape if the economic crisis continues but from what we’ve been reading, India’s assistance in fuel, medicines etc, will pour in from this week, so there is going to be a moderate improvement of situations. Yet, how long will that be sustainable, that’s certainly a question," he said.
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