Russia & Belarus to Conduct Drills on Ukraine's Borders, UK Troops on Standby

S-400 battalion arriving in Belarus. 

(Photo courtesy: Twitter/@franakviacorka, altered by Deeksha Malhotra/The Quint)

Russia and Belarus are set to begin 10 days of joint military drills on Thursday, 10 February, as the threat of a Kremlin invasion looms over Ukrainian borders.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army , Valery Gerasimov, arrived in Belarus on Wednesday to supervise the joint exercises.

"Russia and Belarus have encountered unprecedented threats, the nature and, perhaps, concentration of which are, unfortunately, much larger and much more dangerous than before."

Dmitry Peskov, Spokesperson for the Kremlin

Russia's aggressive mobilisation in Belarus, initiated by President Vladimir Putin, includes:

• 30,000 troops

• Two battalions of S-400s

• Fighter jets into Belarus

The Belarusian and Russian armies will conduct joint exercises.

Belarus, led by Alexander Lukashenko, is Russia's closest ally in Eastern Europe.

Lukashenko, however, remained neutral when Russia snatched Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

When Volodymyr Zelensky became Ukrainian president in 2019, Lukashenko told him that Ukraine has "never had any problems from the territory of Belarus and with Belarus" and "will never have them."

"We will always be the most kind and reliable of your supporters and partners", he had added, as quoted in The Guardian.

That equation may have changed now.

When in August 2020, protests erupted in Belarus after Lukashenko won what is widely considered as a fraudulent election against Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Putin stood by him.

As western European countries imposed sanctions, Russia supported Belarus both financially and diplomatically.

In all likelihood, Putin is now using that leverage to get Lukashenko's support for whatever plans he has for Ukraine.

UK Troops on Standby

The United Kingdom has ordered 1,000 troops to be standby to deploy to Eastern Europe in case of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The move comes in the backdrop of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's trip to NATO headquarters and Poland on Thursday, 10 February.

"The UK remains unwavering in our commitment to European security," Boris Johnson said on Wednesday, as quoted in the BBC.

British officials have warned about the humanitarian disaster and refugee crisis that will overwhelm Europe if a Russian invasion of Ukraine actually took place.

Even the US has estimated that between one and five million people could face war-induced displacement.

Neighbouring country Poland will be the mostly likely destination for refuge.

The government of Ukraine and US are clashing over intelligence regarding Russia's plans.

Ukrainian officials have privately expressed their anger about US having the relevant intelligence , but not sharing it with the Ukrainian government and army.

An advisor to President Zelensky said that only limited value intelligence was being provided by the US.

Senators from both the Democratic and the Republican Party wrote a joint letter to US President Joe Biden regarding the issue.

"Russia is the aggressor, and we need to arm Ukraine with critical information needed to defend their country," the Senate Intelligence Committee members wrote.

(With inputs from Reuters, BBC, and The Guardian)