Report Warns of ‘Colossal Outbreak’ in China if It Abandons Zero-COVID Policy

Four mathematicians warned China was not at all ready to lift quarantine measures for those entering the country.

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A report drafted by mathematicians at one of China's elite universities – Peking University – has stated that the country could face up to 6,30,000 coronavirus infections per day if it abandoned its zero-tolerance policy on COVID and lifted travel bans, The Hindu reported.

It argued that "the estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly put an unbearable burden on the medical system."

Published in the China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the report by the four mathematicians warned that China was not at all ready to lift quarantine measures for those who were entering China, especially because it had not improved its vaccine efficacy or COVID treatment.

While comparing it to specific countries, it claimed that China would witness 2,75,793 cases per day if it followed the same policy as Britain and 4,54,198 cases per day if it followed the same policy as France, South China Morning Post reported.

"Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace ‘opening-up’ strategies and rely solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain Western countries," it added.

The report comes in the backdrop of the world making preparations to tackle the new COVID variant – Omicron – that has already made its way around the world.

(With inputs from The Hindu and South China Morning Post.)