Phulpur Bypoll: A United Opposition May be Mayawati’s Only Hope

Will the Phulpur bypoll see the birth of Opposition 2.0?

Speculation is rife that Mayawati may contest from this key constituency.

(Image: The Quint)

Uttar Pradesh’s Phulpur Lok Sabha seat has grabbed headlines following reports that Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati may contest the bypoll from this constituency, after having resigned from her Rajya Sabha seat.

Phulpur is the same seat from where BSP founder, Kanshi Ram, lost the 1996 elections. He was defeated by Samajwadi Party candidate, Jung Bahadur Patel, by 16,000 votes.

Speculation that Mayawati is all set to contest from Phulpur has gained steam as Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, the MP from this constituency, will now have to resign and gain membership of the Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha.

BJP Vs United Opposition?

The Phulpur seat has a rich history. The nation’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, contested from this seat, as have a number of other political heavyweights. It is significant for both, the BSP and the BJP.

In 2014, when the Modi ‘wave’ swept the Lok Sabha elections, they could not win from Phulpur. Keshav Prasad Maurya took advantage of the ‘wave’ and won from the region with over five lakh votes.

Mayawati’s BSP won Phulpur in 2009 when the party’s Kapil Muni Karwariya bagged 30 percent of the votes.

Who Won Phulpur in the Last Five Elections?

(Photo: The Quint)

For the BJP, the vote share in Phulpur grew from 8 percent in 2009 to 52 percent in 2014. Much of the party’s success in the seat can be attributed to Keshav Prasad Maurya, who was the BJP state chief before he was appointed Deputy Chief Minister of UP.

In 2014, the BJP got 52 percent of the votes, while the Congress, the BSP and the SP collectively garnered 43 percent.

Relief For Opposition Post 2017 Assembly Elections?

After the 2014 poll debacle, the 2017 UP election results came as a breath of fresh air for the Opposition parties. There are five Assembly constituencies under the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat. According to the 2017 election results, the Congress, BSP and SP have managed to collectively win a vote share of 1.5 lakh more than that of the BJP.

This means that had the three parties joined forces, the Congress-BSP-SP combine would have defeated the BJP in four of the five Assembly seats.

Will Phulpur Lay the Foundation for Oppn 2.0?

The Phulpur bypoll will play a crucial role not just in Uttar Pradesh but also in the 2019 general elections.

The bypoll could see the birth of a newly united Opposition, or lay the foundation for the creation of Opposition 2.0 – in light of the crumbling of the Mahagathbandan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar.

The buzz in political corridors is that if Mayawati contests from Phulpur, she will find support from Opposition parties – including the Congress and the SP. This will, subsequently, result in the creation of a formidable opposition to the BJP, one that will be able to put up a fight during the 2019 polls. 

The SP and the BSP have been bitter rivals since 1995, when the Dalit leader was allegedly attacked by Mulayam Singh Yadav’s workers. If the two parties put their differences aside and come together, it would mean a new dawn for social engineering in the state.

After being decimated by the BJP in the 2017 UP Assembly elections, both Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati had indicated at a truce. A Congress-backed Mayawati-Akhilesh combine in UP, paired with support from Lalu Prasad in Bihar, could make for an Opposition force to be reckoned with.

Also Read: Will the Uttar Pradesh By-Polls Witness a 'Gathbandhan' Again?

Besides its potential to unite the Opposition parties, the Phulpur bypoll could also prove to be the perfect opportunity for Mayawati to assert her standing – at a time when PM Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah have been working to break into the Dalit vote bank.

The elevation of Dalit leader Ram Nath Kovind as President has been seen as the BJP’s attempt to appeal to the community. While resigning from her post, Mayawati, had accused the ruling party of gagging her from protesting atrocities on the Dalit community.

Also Read: If Mayawati Contests UP Bypolls, BJP Could Be Left in a Fix

A Brief Timeline of Phulpur’s Political History

• In 1952, 1957 and 1962, India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru represented this seat.
• In 1962, Dr Ram Manohar Lohia contested from the Phulpur seat but lost to Nehru by nearly 55,000 votes.
• In 1967, Vijay Laxmi Pandit won the seat after defeating Janeshwar Mishra.
• In 1969, Janeshwar Mishra emerged victorious in the by-elections in Phulpur.
• In 1971, former Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh secured a win from this constituency.

Some of the country’s most prominent politicians have tasted success in Phulpur, while others have faced defeat. Who will Phulpur pick this time around?

(This article was first published in QuintHindi. It has been translated from Hindi by Akriti Paracer and Rupinder Kaur.)

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