Kathua Rape: Is the BJP-PDP Alliance at a Point of No Return?

Will the PDP pull the rug out from under the BJP? Only CM Mehbooba Mufti knows.

Protesters demanding justice for eight year old of Kathua in Jammu, who was gangraped and murdered.

(Photo: PTI)

As Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti chairs a crucial meeting of senior People's Democratic Party (PDP) leaders and legislators on Saturday, 14 April, in Srinagar, all eyes will be on her brother and Tourism Minister Tassaduq Mufti, who seems to have sounded the bugle for his party to end the ‘unholy’ alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Hundreds gathered on Thursday at midnight to protest against the Kathua and Unnao rape cases.(Photo: Mythreyee Ramesh/The Quint)

The meeting is taking place in the backdrop of the widening divide between the two parties over the communalisation of the rape and murder of an eight-year-old girl in Kathua. That the BJP leaders lent public support to the cause of culprits opened new fissures in the alliance but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s assurance of “justice” may have saved it for another day.

Modi’s statement on Friday was followed by the resignation of the two BJP leaders – Lal Singh, the forest minister and CP Ganga, the industries minister in Mehbooba Mufti’s cabinet – who made provocative speeches at the rallies held in support of the culprits. This has sent out a strong message that no act of polarisation will be tolerated by the state.

Lawyers blocked the J&K police from filing a chargesheet in the CJM court in Kathua, Jammu, on 9 April.(Photo Courtesy: Wajahat Farooq Bhat‏/Twitter)

However, did the ‘inexperienced’ J&K BJP leaders fall in their own trap of communal polarisation while siding with the culprits? Was it the Congress who dug the grave for the saffron party? After three acrimonious years of togetherness, has the PDP-BJP alliance reached a point of no return? Is the PDP looking for an ‘honourable exit’?

Communal Land Grab

In its chilling 18-page chargesheet, the crime branch of J&K Police unearthed a xenophobic conspiracy hatched by a former revenue officer, Sanji Ram. This conspiracy was executed with the help of his minor nephew, among others, to brutally murder the eight-year-old in Rasana village. This was done in order to terrorise the nomadic Bakarwal Muslims living there and force them to abandon their homes.

It was an attempt of land grab. That the BJP leaders openly lend support to such causes exposes their brazen communal mindsets. It also speaks volumes about the venomous politics poisoning the state.

Siddiq Wahid, Political commentator and former Vice-Chancellor, Islamic University, Kashmir

Jammu: Lawyers burn tyres as they stage a demonstration during a shutdown called by Jammu Bar Association against settlements of Rohingya refugees in Jammu, for transfer of the Kathua rape and murder case investigations to the CBI. (Photo: IANS)

Ministers Ganga and Lal Singh, while speaking at one of the rallies on 1 March organised by Hindu Ekta Manch – a body hastily formed to support the culprits – demanded a Central Bureau of Investigation probe into the case, after getting consent from the party high-command.

Singh had even exhorted the protesters to employ “full force” to make themselves heard.

Mehbooba Comes Out Stronger

Since the mangled body of the eight-year-old was recovered from a forested area near her home, pressure had been building on CM Mufti. The BJP was whipping passions in Jammu by painting the crime branch probe with communal colours and demanding a CBI probe. The Opposition levelled accusations of “trading conscience for power” at her while her own party leaders were pushing her to act against the erring BJP ministers.

Women protest against the Unnao and Kathua rapes at Azad Maidan.(Photo: Pallavi Prasad/The Quint)

She withstood pressure from all the sides and stands vindicated today. People will compare this case with 2009 Shopian double rape and murder. While Omar Abdullah succumbed to pressure and handed over the case to the CBI, Mehbooba stood her ground.

Noor M Baba, a political scientist who teaches at the Central University of Kashmir

PDP sources said the chief minister raised the issue of her two BJP ministers’ misconduct in her recent meeting with PM Modi in the national capital, “She worked behind the scenes and also raised the issue with the home minister, BJP chief Amit Shah and Ram Madhav to ensure that the culprits are not patronised”, PDP sources said.

Digging Their Own Grave

The skeletons are tumbling out and the cloak of anonymity is being lifted from the faces of the actors who worked behind the scenes to mobilise public opinion in favour of the culprits in the Hindu majority Jammu region of the state. Subtle indications hint at a probable Congress hand. The party has now washed its hands from the pro-accused protests.

Insiders believe that the polarisation that took place in Jammu was the result of the ‘Congress playing the BJP’s game’.

Visuals from Mumbai’s Azad Maidan during the protests against Kathua and Unnao rapes.(Photo: Pallavi Prasad/The Quint)

Jammu Bar president BS Slathia was Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad’s polling agent. He spearheaded the Jammu bandh on Wednesday and was among the first to castigate the crime branch and seek a CBI probe. No one acted against him but the BJP leaders had to lose their ministries.

Almost all the BJP ministers in J&K are first-timers. They lack the experience required to navigate the turbulent politics of Jammu and Kashmir. The Congress played a crucial role in whipping passions in Jammu over this case and the BJP leaders happily walked into the trap. But before they could realise, it was too late.

Syed Amjad, a Jammu based journalist who followed the case closely, to <b>The Quint</b>

PDP’s Growing Restlessness

A growing restlessness has developed in the PDP over the BJP-led Centre’s ‘betrayal’ on the promises made by the two parties in their governance agenda for J&K. This includes return of power projects and talks with Islamabad on Kashmir issue. The cry of walking out of the alliance is getting shriller now.

“Make our women safe,” Rahul Gandhi led the midnight march to protest against government’s inaction in Unnao and Kathua rapes.(Photo: PTI)

The PDP is much too weak because of internal incompetence and external domination. The BJP is weak because of internal over-confidence and external false confidence. The coalition witnessed the law of diminishing returns early on and today it is a dysfunctional alliance at best.

Siddiq Wahid, Political commentator and former Vice-Chancellor, Islamic University, Kashmir

The protestors gathered to raise their voices against the horrifying Unnao and Kathua rape cases. (Photo: The Quint) 

With the architect of the alliance and former J&K Finance Minister Haseeb Drabu unceremoniously dropped by Mehbooba from her cabinet and now two more ministers of the BJP facing the axe, chances are that the coming days won’t be smooth sailing for the PDP-BJP coalition.

The law of diminishing returns also means the PDP leadership will have to mull over the future of the alliance, which, in the words of Tassaduq Mufti, has pushed Kashmir to a new low.

But will the PDP pull the rug out from under the BJP? Only Mehbooba Mufti can answer that question. 

(The writer is a freelance journalist based out of Jammu and Kashmir. He can be reached at@Gaamuk.)