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The Karnataka assembly election is a three-cornered battle between the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal (Secular). The race is to get to a majority of 113 seats in the 224-member assembly. All three parties have been in power at some point in the last over 15 years, either in alliance with each other or on their own.
At least four of five exit poll surveys showed the Bharatiya Janata Party in pole position but short of a full majority of 113 seats. Of the five exit polls BloombergQuint looked at, four – Times Now-VMR, NewsX-CNX, ABP News-CVoter and Republic-Jan Ki Baat – showed BJP in the lead. Only India Today-Axis My India predicted that the Congress will remain in power in Karnataka, with a seat 106-118 seat share.
In the previous 2013 state election, the Congress won 122 seats, and the BJP won 40, the same as the JD(S). The BJP’s tally in 2013 was a sharp fall from 2008 – when it formed the government with 110 seats and the support of a few outsiders. In 2013, BS Yeddyurappa, the BJP’s biggest Lingayat leader by a distance, and mining baron Reddy brothers with their associates, contested separately from the BJP cutting into the party’s votes.
Incumbent Chief Minister Siddaramaiah of the Congress is contesting from two seats, one from the Belagavi region, and another from his stronghold in the Mysuru region. In Badami in the north, Siddaramaiah was on the ballot against BJP strongman B Sriramulu, who is a close aide of mining baron G Janardhana Reddy.
Siddaramaiah is also contesting from Chamundeswari, in Mysuru, a seat that he has won five times. But here the Janata Dal (Secular) has fielded sitting legislator GT Devegowda, a prominent leader from the Vokkaliga community which holds sway in the Mysuru region. To ensure that the anti-Siddaramaiah votes don’t get split - the BJP has fielded a relatively-unknown candidate in Chamundeshwari.
HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) is contesting from two adjoining constituencies of Channapatna and Ramanagaram in south Karnataka. Ramanagaram is considered Kumaraswamy’s stronghold where he boasts of a hat-trick of electoral wins. In Channapatna - Kumaraswamy faces a tougher fight. He’s up against the sitting BJP candidate YP Yogeshwar, and the state’s transport minister HM Revanna from the Congress.
To retain power, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah will also have to break a 30-year trend that Karnataka shares with Kerala – of not giving a government a second full mandate. Power in Karnataka has been a see-saw that’s swung every 4-5 years. 1985 is the last time a party in the state won a majority for the second election in a row.
The election campaign did not throw up a single dominant issue. But a key theme that all three parties put on centrestage is the issue of ‘Kannada Pride’. First floated by incumbent Chief Minister Sidaramaiah, it is seen as a counter to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s nationalism pitch.
The shortage of water in the state is another big issue. According to the 2011 census, water demand in Bengaluru alone was about 18 thousand million cubic feet of water for a population of about 8.5 million, but the shortfall was 5.8 TMCs. By 2031, the shortfall is expected to grow to 10.7 TMCs.
Karnataka’s economy is as large as oil-rich Qatar, riding on the growth of software services. At 10 percent, it’s the third-highest contributor to India’s gross domestic product of $2.3 trillion after Maharashtra and Gujarat.
When pegged against other large Indian states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Kerala – Karnataka still lags behind on some socio-economic indicators, according to data compiled by BloombergQuint. Only three-fourths of Karnataka’s population is literate. That’s the lowest rate among the five states used for this comparison.
Karnataka’s healthcare spending as a share of its total expenditure is lower than that of Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
With 28 out of 224 seats, Karnataka’s capital city may not make or break this election, but infrastructure and other woes could make it difficult for the incumbent Congress government to convince voters that enough has been done.
As many as 262 water bodies existed in the city till 1960s, rapid urbanisation has brought down their number to about 80, of which only 34 are recognised as live lakes, according to state government data.
Farmers in Karnataka say that they have a few pressing issues that need to be urgently resolved. Their major demands are these: Loan waivers, low interest rates for loans, higher minimum support price, better irrigation methods, and a solution to water scarcity.
The Siddaramaiah government had announced a crop loan waiver of Rs 50,000 for every farmer. The Chief Minister claimed Rs 8,165 crore were waived for 22,27,506 farmers across Karnataka. But farmers say that is simply not enough, as they have taken loans of Rs 3-6 lakh and with failing crops and exorbitant interest rates, they have become impossible to repay.
With 28 parliamentary seats, Karnataka is the largest state that Congress is still in power. If the party is voted out, then the BJP’s slogan of a ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ (Congress-free India) moves a step closer to reality. A return to power in the state will cement the Congress’ claim that it’s the only viable opposition to take on the BJP. That would also place Gandhi in a comfortable position to claim leadership of an anti-BJP coalition before 2019.
Karnataka is also the only southern state where the BJP has had a full-term government. For an ever-expanding and ambitious BJP, it’s the gateway to the south, and Karnataka offers it the best chance to win in the region.
(This article was first published in BloombergQuint.)
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Published: 14 May 2018,12:18 AM IST