BJP-Sena To Win Maharashtra Despite Anti-Incumbency: CVoter Survey

BJP-Shiv Sena likely to win 194 Seats, Congress-NCP at 86, says ABP-CVoter survey.

The ABP-CVoter survey tips the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance to win Maharashtra Assembly elections.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis could become the first non-Congress chief minister to win a second term in Maharashtra, if the opinion poll by ABP-CVoter is anything to go by.

According to the survey, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance could win somewhere between 182 and 206 seats in Maharashtra, while the Congress and NCP could win 72 to 98.

CVoter

• In 2014, BJP had won 122 seats and Shiv Sena 63. Congress and NCP had won 42 and 41 respectively.
• If the UPA does win over 80 seats as the survey is predicting, it would also be a small improvement from the Lok Sabha elections in which the UPA could win just 6 out of 48 seats.
• In terms of vote share, the survey predicts that the BJP-Sena could get 47.3 percent votes, nine percentage points more than the Congress-NCP’s 38.5 percent.

CVoter

• For the UPA, this too is an improvement from the Lok Sabha elections in which the NDA had a lead of 19 percentage points.

• The UPA’s is particularly giving a good fight in Marathwada and Western Maharashtra. The NDA’s lead is highest in Mumbai and Konkan.

• According to the CVoter survey, there is a sense of resentment against the Fadnavis government in the state. The survey says that 54.9 percent respondents said they want to change the government immediately, 54.5 percent said they want to change the chief minister and 54.7 percent said they want to change their local MLA.

• Based on the survey, it appears that unemployment, water, roads and agrarian issues are the main causes of discontent.

CVoter

• In Maharashtra, 23.1 percent respondents said unemployment was the biggest issue followed by water supply at 18.4 percent.

• People blamed the state government for these issues, more than any other authority.

CVoter

• However, this resentment doesn’t seem to be harming the BJP-Sena much. In fact 28.9 percent said BJP is best placed to solve these problems followed by Congress at 13.9 percent and NCP at 11.7 percent. BJP’s ally Shiv Sena was far behind at 6.6 percent.

• Another reason why anti-incumbency hasn’t harmed BJP is the lack of a proper face in the Opposition.

CVoter

• According to the survey, Devendra Fadnavis is the most popular CM candidate with 34.7 percent picking him as their choice. No other candidate could cross even 10 percent.

• Curiously the top two challengers are NCP’s Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar followed by MNS’ Raj Thackeray. Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray and Congress leaders are far behind.