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As an atypical surge in dengue incidence engulfs India, as many as 1,16,991 cases of the vector-borne disease have been reported across the country this year, indicates the latest government data.
Nine states and Union territories – Haryana, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Jammu and Kashmir – continue to observe a high caseload of dengue in November, even after the withdrawal of the precarious monsoon season that is associated with the disease.
While it is not possible to ascertain a singular factor that has led to the unprecedented dengue outbreak in Delhi and elsewhere, health experts posit that a variety of antecedents may have led to the surge.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection, found in tropical and sub-tropical climates worldwide, usually in urban and semi-urban areas.
Dengue virus is transmitted by female mosquitoes, primarily belonging to the species Aedes aegypti. The vector mosquitoes breed in stagnant water that collects around residential areas, especially during the monsoon season.
Experts decode the various possible factors that account for the high transmission of dengue this year.
Dr Om Shrivastav, infectious diseases specialist at Mumbai's Jaslok Hospital, suggests that the protracted monsoon may have been a major contributing factor to the high caseload of dengue this year.
"The withdrawal of the monsoon was quite delayed this year. The accumulation of water due to the heavy rains, which continued well into October this year, may have led to the surge," he explained.
Delhi-based physician Dr Suranjeet Chatterjee, speaking about the dengue outbreak in the national capital, said "The numbers this time have shown a significant rise. Prolonged rains could be the reason behind this."
Delhi had recorded 94.6 mm of rain in the month of October – making it the wettest October since 1960, as per the IMD.
Public health and policy expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya observes that epidemiological trends also play an important role in determining the caseload of a vector-borne disease in a particular year.
"The vector-borne disease follows a certain pattern. You will see that every three-four years, there is a rise in dengue. Programme mangers, while planning preventative practices, should be wary of this," he tells The Quint.
Dr Om Shrivastav, explaining why this happens, said that viral vectors are 'elastic' in nature, in that they tend to change their traits every few years, leading to a difference in the prevalence of the disease that they transmit.
This pattern has been observed in the national capital as well.
"Every four-five years, the numbers of dengue rise in Delhi. This is a cyclical pattern that we have observed," Dr Suranjeet Chatterjee, Senior Consultant – Internal Medicine, Apollo Hospital, tells The Quint.
Delhi had last seen a massive dengue outbreak in 2015, when the city had recorded 15,867. Before that, Delhi had seen over 6,200 cases in a dengue wave in 2010.
India saw a harsh second wave of COVID-19 in the early months of 2021, which, when it declined, left experts warning of the possibility of a third coronavirus wave.
While the governments were busy dealing with COVID preparations this time, perhaps the cautionary measures for dengue got less attention, suggests Apollo Hospital's Dr Chatterjee.
Cases of co-infection, where a patient has been diagnosed with both COVID and dengue, leading to a more sizeable bodily response, have also been observed this year.
A number of preventive practices, employed at the individual and the administrative level, can help ameliorate the transmission and impact of dengue.
"At the government level, this outbreak is a reminder that vector-borne diseases are still very much a reality, and that appropriate measures need to be taken to deal with them," states Dr Lahariya.
At the individual level, people should ensure that no pooling of water takes place at their neighbourhoods and workplaces. Disposal of waste needs to be done in a proactive and hygienic manner, in order to prevent the breeding of mosquitoes.
If one develops symptoms of dengue, such as high fever, headache, fatigue, and nausea, they should immediately consult a trained physician and access timely care.
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