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The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) was first done in the year 1992. Almost two decades later – the fifth edition of the survey, released on Wednesday, 24 November, threw two numbers that took India by surprise.
One: The proportion of women in the country exceeded that of men – 1,020 women for every 1,000 men.
Two: India's Total Fertility Rate slipped to 2 – indicating that the country no longer faced a population explosion threat.
So, do these numbers confirm the signs of a demographic shift in India? Does it show that we are no longer a son-preferring nation? And, has our population begun to stabilise?
Take the data with a pinch of salt, experts told The Quint, explaining that there's a lot of reading between the lines that's required to decipher the NFHS data.
In the third edition of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3), conducted between 2005 and 2006, India's sex ratio was equal – 1000 females to 1000 males. In its fourth edition (2015-2016), the proportion of women to men dipped again – 991:1000.
When the fifth edition numbers showed more proportion of women than men, a leading daily stated that India could no longer be called a country of "missing girls".
This is a wrong analysis – as sex ratio and sex ratio at birth are two different things, pointed Varna Sri Raman, Lead, Research and Knowledge Building, at Oxfam India.
Sanghamitra Singh, Senior Manager (Knowledge Management & Partnerships) at Population Foundation of India echos Raman.
The improved sex ratio in terms of total population could also mean that among adults, women are living longer than men. "This could simply mean that women are surviving for longer now. This is a demographic trend, much like the other demographic trends. It is important to note that the data that has been released is not unit-level data," Raman told The Quint.
A state-wise break-up of numbers also shows, at face value, that India could be on its way to stabilise its population – with many states recording a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of less than 2.
According to the NFHS data, India's TFR is at 2 – which is the internationally accepted standard for the population to have peaked – and is headed for an eventual decline.
Experts say that India is still expected to become the most populous country in the world as per United Nations projections – and that the population would peak at 1.6 to 1.8 billion – between 2040 and 2050.
It is important to note that while the TFR has come down, India's young population (who make most of the population) is expected to continue to procreate.
"We were kind of expecting India to reach replacement level of fertility, which is fertility rate of 2.1. In NFHS-4, the TFR was 2.2, so for us to reach 2 is not surprising at all. Having said that, India has a large young population right now. Even though fertility has reached 2, the young population will continue to have children till our average age becomes higher and more people are out of that reproductive cycle," adds Sanghamitra Singh.
To put it simply, while widely regarded, the NFHS still remains a representative survey.
The NFHS survey also does not throw disintegrated data – in terms of religion and caste – nor does it throw light on how the subgroups are doing in terms of numbers like sex ratio and the TFR.
Dr Reddy explains this with an example – the correlation between sex ratio at birth and the TFR.
"The contribution to the improvement of sex ratio at birth interestingly comes from rural areas. It is more skewed in urban areas. So if rural TFR is 2 and 1.6 in urban areas, one needs to question if the greater gender preference is coming from urban India? This has to be studied in detail. It is a hypothesis that needs to be explored – but only the census can help us with that," Dr Reddy added.
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Published: 26 Nov 2021,08:44 AM IST