India's Population To Overtake China By 2023, Fertility Rate to Drop: UN Report

India's population will soon overtake China's, as per the UN report, but at the cost of female fertility.

India's population will soon overtake China's, as per the UN report.

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India is likely to become the country with the world's largest population in 2023, overtaking China, according to a report from the United Nations.

The report, 2022 edition of the UN Population Prospects, released on Monday, 11 July, states that India's population is expected to grow from the present 1.4 billion people to 1.67 billion in 2050 and just under 1.7 billion by 2064, and finally rest at 1.53 billion in 2100.

The world population is set to reach 8 billion by 15 November 2022.

Key Highlights: 

• While the world population reaches 8 billion by 2022, by 2030 the population is expected to grow upto 8.5 billion, 9.7 billion by 2050, and will hit 10.4 billion by 2100.

• These 8 countries will be responsible for more than half of the projected population growth: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

• The population of older persons will increase disproportionately. The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.

• The population of those in the age group of

India's Fertility Rate Will Fall Further

As per the UN's population statistics, India and China account for the lion's share of Asia's population - with more than 1.4 billion people each.

The report adds that India's total fertility rate is expected to fall from 2.01 at present to 1.78 in 2050 and 1.69 in 2100.

This is far below the global average of 2.3 at present. The report also adds that the positive number of births in India among women aged 15 to 19 might fall from the current 9,88,000 to 2,82,000 by 2050.

This number is expected to dwindle further to 1,32,000 by 2100.

"The most important outcome of knowing these estimates is, how will governments step up in their investment on sexual and reproductive access and take proactive steps to address climate change and look out for the vulnerable and marginalised sections of the society."

Debanjana Choudhuri, Gender and Climate Action Activist

'Burden of Contraception Must Be Shared, But Not Happening In India'

Debanjana Choudhuri adds that the burden of contraception must be shared between men and women. "Women and girls have long borne the burden of contraception and family planning and are the worst sufferers of impacts of climate change."

She adds that India needs holistic discussions and better investment and programmes around comprehensive sexuality education, preventing child marriages, and protecting women and girls from sexual and gender-based violence.

The report adds that contraception plans must be a two-pronged approach:

• Ensure women have easy access to safe contraception choices and safe abortions. Women and girls should be empowered to be decision makers and have bodily autonomy to decide when and if, to have children.

• There also needs to be programmatic intervention and investment in male contraception planning and programmes, as well as overall family planning.

The report adds that there's a pressing need for the creation and implementation of male-involvement family planning initiatives which address barriers to men’s supportive participation in reproductive health such as men's negative beliefs regarding male contraceptive services.

A reminder: 35.7 percent of all family planning procedures in India are female sterilisations while only 0.3 percent account for male sterilisations, according to the National Family Health Survey.

The report concludes that “future predictions of demographic figures may not be able to take into account water shortages, realities of upcoming issues and impacts of pandemics like COVID 19."

"We are looking at a future of water shortages, climate change as well as a possible change in migration patterns all of which would affect a population."