Bengal’s BJP Surge: What Mamata Must Do to Keep the State in 2021

Winning the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections is now top priority for the BJP in the state.

After the BJP’s massive success in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha Elections 2019, we discuss what Mamata Banerjee must do to retain the state in 2021.

(Photo: Arnica Kala/The Quint)

Video Editor: Sandeep Suman

“Thanda thanda cool cool
Banglaye ebar padma phool”

Before 23 May, not many were ready to believe that this slogan would ever be said aloud in Bengal. But with 18 seats in the state and 40 percent of the vote-share for the BJP this time, and here we are.

The next battle for the saffron party in the state is, of course, the state elections of 2021.

In the 2016 elections Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won a thumping majority with 211 out of 294 seats to retain a second term in office. This time around, the battle might not be that smooth for Didi and here are a few things she needs to do to ensure that the joda phool trumps the padma phool.

1) Reign in the Trinamool Cadre

The biggest revelation of the Lok Sabha elections is how the BJP dominated in the rural areas of Bengal – Mamata's biggest support base.

This, even as most social welfare schemes of the government are directed at rural Bengal and some like Kanyashree and Rupashree are also wildly popular.

So clearly the discontent with the TMC came from elsewhere.

Namely, the fact that the Trinamool's local leaders and musclemen are notorious for spreading unabated violence and terror, as the police and local administration purposefully turn a blind eye.

Case in point – the panchayat polls of 2018 where over 50 people lost their lives in poll-related violence and 34 percent of the seats went to the TMC uncontested.

If rural Bengal needs to be won again, the image of Mamata as a saviour, as opposed to a terror, needs to return.

2) Pahar hashche, Jangalmahal hashche...

But result dekhe mone hoe Didi'r oporei hashche.

The hill seats continue to evade Trinamool as the Gorkhaland undercurrent is proving difficult to suppress and efforts to "include the sons of the soil" in the government have also failed.

The BJP's NRC trope and  "infiltrators" bid seems to have worked in the border districts like Coochbehar.

In the districts like Alipurduar and Jalpaiguri where tea workers and their dependents form 40-plus percent of the electorate, discontentment over minimum wages and land rights have worked against the Trinamool as well.

With the party also losing out on its voter base in South Bengal, it is now clear that the next government in the state cannot be formed without the support of the North.

Coming to Jangalmahal or the name given to the tribal areas like Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram etc – the tribal votes seem to have completely shifted to the BJP which won all constituencies in this area.

Apart from Trinamool’s in-fighting, one major reason for this is how the RSS machinery in the state worked with the BJP to establish ground-level organisation and also commissioned social welfare activities like building schools.

The latent strength of the sleeping but ancient RSS in the state is something the TMC clearly underestimated and they must now do some damage control before 2021 probably by focusing on implementation of its welfare schemes in these areas.

3) Contain Factionalism in Its Ranks

It has been observed that many ground-level workers were campaigning for the Trinamool but then facilitating votes for the BJP.

In seats like Ranaghat and Balurghat, it is heard that factions within the Trinamool that did not agree with the candidates fielded, actively worked against their own party.

A wobbly middle-level management meant that this information did not reach the Trinamool top brass until it was too late. So maybe its time to replace some middle level leaders and check dissenters within the party.

4) Shed Their Minority Appeaser Image

“Who cares about Ram Navami in Bengal?” asked the Kolkata bhadralok and the answer is – "Anybody who's not in Kolkata."

The proof lies in the BJP winning seats like Hooghly, Barrackpore, Asansol, Bardhaman-Durgapur and also putting up a close fight in many other South Bengal seats.

The Hindu votes in these areas have clearly heeded to the BJP's aggressive Hindu narrative that placed Mamata as an anti-Hindu, anti-Durga Puja, anti-Ram entity who only cares about the Muslims and Ms Banerjee was clearly not equipped for a religious slugfest in spite of the 1,000 mantras that she chanted in all her rallies.

Mamata has to now pro-actively get the Hindus to her side. How she'll do it without hampering her Muslim vote bank remains to be seen.

Until then one thing is clear – the political tamasha in Bengal has just begun.