Bengal: Will Left-Cong Alliance Being Called Off Help TMC, BJP?

Congress and Left won six seats put together in 2014. They are hoping to retain at least four. 

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

After a lot of negotiations, the Left Front and Congress have both now fielded 40 candidates each in West Bengal for the Lok Sabha elections. Essentially, this makes the 42 seats of West Bengal a four-way fight between the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Left Front and the Congress.

In the last major local election that the state saw – the panchayat elections of 2018 – the TMC won 66 percent of the seats, while the BJP came in second with about 17 percent. The Left Front and the Congress were in third and fourth places, respectively, with the Congress tally being lower than that of independents.

How is this four-way tussle going to affect the electoral picture? Let’s have a look.

Both Left and Congress May Lose Raiganj & Murshidabad

The main bone of contention in the multiple rounds of talks between the two parties, the Raiganj seat, is currently held by CPI(M)’s Mohammad Salim. The Congress candidate fielded here is veteran Deepa Dasmunsi who held the seat from 2009 to 2014, but lost to Salim by just 1,634 votes in 2014.

Similarly in Murshidabad, the Left Front’s Badaruddoza Khan inched past the Congress’ Abdul Mannan Hossain by around 19,000 votes in 2014.

While in Raiganj, it is still a neck-and-neck between Deepa and Salim, the BJP could make an impact in Murshidabad this time around.

Of the seven Assembly segments in the constituency, three are held by the Left Front, two by the Congress and two by the TMC.

However, the BJP candidate for the seat – Humayun Kabir – was a former minister in the Trinamool Congress government before he was expelled for anti-party activities in 2015.

He then joined the Congress before defecting to the BJP recently, and is expected to use the lack of alternative to the Trinamool to his advantage.

TMC’s Advantage in North Bengal

The lack of a ‘non-BJP’ Opposition will also help the Trinamool consolidate Muslim votes in North Bengal where it has traditionally not done very well.

The Congress is likely to suffer in the area which has traditionally been its stronghold.

For instance, in Malda, both the Trinamool and the BJP have been making inroads. In fact, in the 2016 state election, one of the three seats that the BJP won was that of the Baishnabnagar constituency in Malda which is heavily Muslim dominated. The vote-share of the BJP in the district also went up by over 24 percent.

The TMC is looking at a weakened Opposition in these areas to offset some of the losses it is likely to face in South Bengal where the BJP is consolidating Hindu votes.

In Murshidabad and Raiganj too, the Trinamool would be glad that while the BJP tries to consolidate the Hindu vote, the Muslim votes do not get divided.

BJP in Key South Bengal Seats

For the BJP, the failed alliance between the Left and the Congress will especially help in South Bengal seats like Purulia, Basirhat, Hooghly and Bankura.

In Purulia, the anti-BJP votes are likely to get divided between the Congress and the Forward Bloc – both of which have strong presence in the area.

It is a similar situation in Basirhat, which has a strong Congress as well as CPI presence.

The saffron party has been vociferously campaigning against Bangladeshi infiltration in this border constituency which saw communal violence in 2017.

The Trinamool candidate from the area – actor Nusrat Jahan – is a political debutant which can also work as a disadvantage for the ruling party.

Where the Left & Congress Might Win

Both the Left and the Congress have decided to not contest two seats each.

The Congress has not fielded candidates in Jadavpur and Bankura, both of which used to be Left bastions.

In Jadavpur, it is now a contest between the Left’s Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya, a veteran leader, and actor Mimi Chakraborty. The Left Front performed well in the area in the 2016 state election, and Bhattacharya is expected to have an edge over the actress this time too.

In Bankura, it is going to be a tough contest between veteran TMC leader Subrata Mukherjee and the CPI(M)’s Amiya Patra. However, the popularity of the TMC in this seat has gone on a downward spiral since Moon Moon Sen of the TMC won the MP seat in 2014. Sources in the Trinamool say that a leader like Mukherjee was brought in to consolidate the ground-level cadre in the area so that the seat is not lost. The Left Front, therefore, stands as principal opposition to the TMC in this seat.

Meanwhile, the Left has also conceded the seats of Malda Uttar and Berhampore to the Congress. Both are seats where the respective Congress candidates – AH Khan Chowdhury and Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury – are sitting MPs, faced with a weak opposition from the Trinamool.

Congress and Left won six seats put together in 2014. They are hoping to retain at least four.