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Video editors: Prajjwal Kumar and Rajbir Singh
Cameraperson: Athar Rather
Here are 5 reasons why it is unfair for BSP chief Mayawati to blame Muslim voters for the party’s dismal performance in the UP 2022 elections. And this isn’t the first time she’s doing it either. But more on that in a bit.
The BSP has won just 1 seat out of 403 seats in UP, their worst-ever performance in the state.
But is it fair for Mayawati to react to her party’s poor performance by blaming Muslims? Not really. Here’s why.
That the BSP had a lukewarm election campaign this time was evident not just in the far fewer election rallies it held, but also in the few-and-far-between appearances of Mayawati herself. “Behenji zyada dikh nahi rahi hai” is a refrain we heard often on the ground while interacting with voters during our election coverage. This sentiment of Mayawati was spread across communities, including Dalits and Muslims. And the facts support that claim. Despite a dearth of star campaigners in the BSP, Mayawati reportedly held only around 20-odd rallies in this entire election, a far cry from the BJP and SP’s efforts to woo voters on the campaign trail.
For these reasons, this was clearly an election where Mayawati and the BSP were perceived to be taking a backseat.
In such a situation, can anti-BJP voters, including Muslim voters be blamed for coalescing behind the SP, whom they saw on the campaign trail as a much stronger challenger to the BJP?
The election results and voting patterns point to a clear trend - that Muslims across the state consolidated behind the SP as they saw the Samajwadi Party as the strongest challenger to Yogi.
Mayawati may be upset about it, but here are some factors that she could consider while reflecting on why this happened.
Can a Muslim voter in UP be blamed for perceiving the BSP as ambivalent to their cause?
The Ram Mandir, being built on the site where the Babri Masjid stood till 1992, is an emotive issue for Muslim voters. And it isn’t even the only example of the BSP’s ambiguous positioning. In 2019, in the Rajya Sabha, although both SP and BSP opposed the bill criminalising instant triple talaq, yet it was the BSP that skipped voting on it. When the Supreme Court had already made the pronouncement of talaq in a single setting void in law, the Modi government’s triple talaq bill was seen by many in the Muslim community as a tool to criminalise Muslim men.
Then, in October 2020, Mayawati had stated that she would ensure the defeat of the SP candidate in the upcoming MLC election even if it meant voting for the BJP. When this comment of hers wasn’t received well, she had to clarify that she would not actually consider allying with the BJP.
And given Mayawati’s laidback effort this UP election, the allegations of her providing tacit support to the BJP did gain momentum across UP. But then again, the allegations gained ground because she wasn’t seen fighting this election as hard as she could have.
Let’s look at a couple of interesting constituencies in the 2017 UP election results to understand this point better.
In 2017, in the constituency of Bhojipura in Bareilly district, the BJP candidate Bahoran Lal Maurya won with a total of 1 lakh votes. The SP candidate Shazil Ansari came second with 72,000+ votes. And in third place was another Muslim candidate, of the BSP, who polled as many 49.8k votes.
A similar phenomenon took place in Nanpara in the district of Bahraich. In 2017, the Muslim vote had got split there between Congress candidate Waris Ali (who got over 67k votes) and BSP candidate Abdul Waheed (who got over 25k votes).
Together, their share came to above 93k votes). But given the split, the BJP candidate Madhuri Verma won with 86k votes.
Muslim votes getting split between the SP, BSP and Congress often resulted in the BJP candidate winning the seat, as evidenced in 2017.
So, what changed this time? With a consolidation of the Muslim behind SP, this phenomenon was avoided in certain places.
For example, in Bhojipura itself, Bahoran Lal Maurya once again stood on a BJP ticket, and polled over 1.09 lakh votes.
But the Muslim vote did not get split. It consolidated behind the SP candidate Shazil Ansari, who polled 1.19 lakh votes, and won the seat by a margin of 9,409 votes. Support for the BSP candidate was decisively whittled down to under 27,000 votes, making all the difference and defeating the BJP in this seat in Bareilly.
Now, during her post-result address, Mayawati thanked the Dalit community for backing the BSP. But let us look at what the data tells us about the Dalit vote itself.
Yes, the BSP continued to retain its hold among Jatav voters, with the Axis My India exit poll showing that 62% of Jatav voters voted for BSP.
So, even when it came to non-Jatav Dalit voters, the SP seems to have been ahead of the BSP this election.
By June 2021, only 7 of the 19 MLAs who won on a BSP ticket in 2017 were still with the party. That’s a loss of more than 60% of the party’s MLAs in a little over four years.
The BSP has been continually ravaged by defections and ousters of senior party leaders and MLAs, such as the likes of Lalji Verma and Ram Achal Rajbhar. Both Verma and Rajbhar contested the 2022 elections on an SP ticket, and both of them won.
To come out after your party’s worst electoral performance and blame a particular community or a section of voters for it isn’t great politics.
Mayawati has blamed Muslims for her party’s below-expectations performance in the past as well. She did so after the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, and then again after the 2012 Assembly polls too.
In every UP Assembly election since 2007, the BSP’s total number of seats and vote share have both continued to decline. It went down from 206 seats and 30.4% vote share in 2007, to 80 seats in 2012, after which Mayawati blamed Muslims for having voted for the SP.
Then, in 2017, the tally slid further to 19 seats and 22% of the vote share. But 2022 has been the lowest of lows for the BSP - with just 1 seat and 12.9% of the vote share.
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