Poll Analysis: Why Is the BJP in Trouble in the Hindi Heartland?

The BJP is no more the invincible party it once was. What has gone wrong with the saffron party?

Agrarian and rural distress against the BJP government backed by data.

(Photo Courtesy: Arnica Kala/The Quint)

Video Editor: Mohd Ibrahim

While the people of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have shown they want the Congress to form government, the party has made significant gains in Madhya Pradesh. Let us remember that these three states have been BJP strongholds.

What has gone wrong for the saffron party?

1. Widespread Agrarian Crisis
2. Dilution of the SC/ST Act
3. Demonetisation

Now, we shall look at each of them one by one.

1. Impact of Widespread Agrarian Distress on BJP’s Performance

(Source: Axis My India-India Today Group)

The widespread agrarian crisis is reflected in the rural numbers where the Congress has taken a lead. We know for sure that the farm community is in real distress.

i) The spiral of violence in Madhya Pradesh's Mandsaur in June 2017, where six farmers were killed in police firing, made headlines and fueled resentment. The BJP paid the price of treating it as one-off. Madhya Pradesh has been grappling with over-production, but farmers are not getting the price, and access to market is still a huge problem.

ii) In November, farmers descended on the Ramlila Maidan in Delhi demanding favourable terms of trade. The protests called by All India Kisan Sangharsh Coordination Committee, an umbrella group of at least 130 farmer organisations spread across the length and breadth of India, signaled the mounting distress across the country. The president of All India Kisan Sabha clearly said, "Despite PM Modi's recent statements that he had taken initiatives to solve farmers' distress, the issues remain. For this betrayal, farmers will give Modi government and the BJP a befitting reply in 2019 election."

2. The Impact of the Dilution of the SC/ST Act

The BJP also seems to have paid the price for dithering on the perceived dilution of the SC/ST act. The perception gained ground that the BJP is not keen to protect the rights of SCs and STs. The Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s handling of the issue angered many. As many as five of the nine deaths during the Dalit protest took place in Madhya Pradesh. The Gwalior region, incidentally, was the epicentre of the protest.

Let us also remember that Chhattisgarh has a very large tribal population. Looking at the result one, gets the impression that there is resounding ‘no’ from tribal population for the BJP.

In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP faced the ire of privileged castes too. There were movements by the privileged castes against the provisions of the SC/ST act.

3. Demonetisation on 8 November 2016

While the BJP has been in denial, economic slowdown following the draconian demonetisation has reflected badly on the saffron party. While claims of fighting black money were pushed by the Narendra Modi-led BJP government on the evening of 8 November 2016, it is a documented fact that 99.3 percent of demonetised notes found their way back into banks.

Simultaneously, the poor didn’t have bank accounts or ATMs in their villages – also important to remember is that demonetisation was announced right in the middle of the sowing season. This caused a lot of daily hardship for the farmer, who was forced to borrow just to buy seeds, pesticides, etc.

However, this crusade against the rich eventually culminated in nothing. No legitimate benefit trickled down to the poor, while reportedly 100 people, poor people spread across India, lost their lives. Soon they began to step away from the tall claims made by the government and give another party a shot.

To gauge this disenchantment with demonetisation, let’s take a look at the party’s electoral performances ever since.

(Infographic: Erum Gour/The Quint)

The BJP could manage only 23 percent of seats in the elections for nagarpanchayats held in October 2017 in Uttar Pradesh. This was one of the early signs of growing disenchantment with the ruling coalition in smaller urban conglomerates.  The BJP’s vote share dropped below the psychologically important 30 percent mark in this tier of urban local bodies. That too within months of a thumping victory in the Assembly elections.

(Infographic: Erum Gour/The Quint)

Of the 127 semi-urban and rural Assembly seats in Gujarat, the Congress won as many as 68 seats. The BJP could manage only 55 of these seats. This was yet another indication of people in villages and small towns drifting away from the BJP.

(Infographic: Erum Gour/The Quint)

The BJP lost almost all semi-urban and rural seats in bypolls held post demonetisation. Phulpur, Araria, Kairana and Bhandara-Gondia are some of many such examples.  

The verdict from Hindi heartland is clear: They want Congress Yukt Bharat and have cut the BJP down to size.