Lok Sabha Elections 2019: What’s at Stake in Phase 6 of Polling?

Will the Opposition gain ground in some of the fierce battles in phase six of the polls?

What is at stake for the BJP and will the Opposition gain ground in some of these fierce battles? How does it all add up to the big picture at the Centre?

(Photo: The Quint)

Over 10 crore voters will decide the fate of some 979 candidates in the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha polls that will be held on Sunday, 12 May. Voting will take place in seven states across the country, that is Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal.

What is at stake for the BJP and will the Opposition gain ground in some of these fierce battles? How does it all add up to the big picture at the Centre?

The Quint's Sanjay Pugalia, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari and Sandeep Phukan, Deputy Editor, The Hindu joined in on the discussion.

On Atishi-Gambhir Row

Talking about the row that has erupted between AAP's Atishi and BJP's Gautam Gambhir after an offensive pamphlet against the AAP candidate was handed out in East Delhi constituency, and how it would play out at the ballot box, Pugalia said that he felt that such things do not actually end up influencing voters in the elections.

He also said that if at all such things mattered in the campaign, it should help Atishi because no young voter in Delhi would appreciate such a 'slanderous' campaign against any woman. He also condemned the mudslinging and the character assassination that was taking place in the polls.

Congress Could Perform Better Than AAP

Talking about whether the AAP and Congress' failure to pull together an alliance in Delhi would help the BJP, Tiwari said that it certainly would, in the sense that the anti-BJP votes would now be split. However, he pointed out that the Congress was likely to perform better than AAP in this election and that they were likely to emerge the second largest player in Delhi, beating AAP and posing a challenge to the BJP.

Phukan agreed that the Congress could perform better than the AAP, adding that he felt that the Congress had chosen not to go in for an alliance with the party because they had noticed a certain degree of anti-incumbency against them.

He also pointed out that BJP still had the largest vote share, although Congress was putting up a strong fight against the party and fielding strong candidates such as Sheila Dikshit and Ajay Maken.

The Digivijaya Singh- Pragya Thakur Battle

Asked whether the Congress would claw back in Madhya Pradesh, Tiwari said that this was a state where the Congress is in direct contest with the BJP. Accordingly, they had put up heavyweight candidates and whatever gains it made, would deplete the BJP's vote tally.

On whether Pragya Thakur's candidature in Bhopal would work for the BJP in the state, Pugalia said that he felt that Thakur would actually play a negative role for the party in many constituencies. Though he said that BJP could still win Bhopal considering the fact that it has been the strongest seat for the party, he added that many local BJP workers in Bhopal as well as many 'liberal' Indians, both rural and urban were unhappy with her being fielded.

However, Phukan said that there was a sense of anti-incumbency against Congress in the state, possibly due to the high expectations that the people had when the party won the state polls in 2018. He also pointed out that while Bhopal would be an extremely polarised election, Digvijaya Singh was playing it safe and had been careful not to attack Pragya Thakur.

BJP to Face Challenge in UP

According to Tiwari, the BJP’s main challenge in Uttar Pradesh, apart from the Mahagathbandhan, was to please voters of all the castes. He also said that the leakage from the SP-BSP alliance would play a role.

Pugalia said the BJP was definitely going to lose some of their vote share in UP but by how much was still anybody's guess. The key, Pugalia said, was the extremely backward castes in the state.