West Bengal: Will a Congress-Left Alliance Harm TMC or BJP?

Will Left & Congress come together in West Bengal? It could cost TMC a few seats and deny BJP the Opposition space.

CPI(M)’s Sitaram Yechury and Congress President Rahul Gandhi at the protest over the SC/ST Atrocities Bill, at Jantar Mantar, Delhi.

(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/INCIndia)

The manner in which the standoff over the Central Bureau of Investigation’s move against Kolkata Police Commissioner Rajeev Kumar became a full-fledged confrontation between the Centre and the West Bengal government, was reflective of the highly competitive political battle in the eastern state.

If West Bengal becomes a bipolar competition between the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, the biggest losers would be the Left Front and the Congress.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the Left and the Congress are exploring the possibility of forming a pre-poll “anti-TMC, anti-BJP” alliance in the state.

The two had come together in the 2016 West Bengal Assembly elections. While the alliance helped the Congress increase its vote share and emerge as the second-largest party in the Assembly, the Left didn’t gain much.

Since 2016, the Left has been consistently losing ground to the BJP, which is emerging as the main Opposition to the TMC in West Bengal.

The Congress, too, is facing a crisis with many of its leaders – from Lok Sabha MP Mausam Benazir Noor to a number of MLAs and corporators – defecting to the TMC.

What Impact Will the Alliance Have?

If the Congress and Left had come together in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, their combined vote share was almost equal to that of the TMC. However, by 2016, the TMC appeared to have gained at the expense of the Left Front and the BJP, while the Congress vote share increased by 3.6 percent.

In terms of seats, the Congress and Left would have won 11 seats had they contested together in 2014. Every Lok Sabha seat in West Bengal has seven Assembly segments. If we combine the votes secured by various parties in each of these seven segments, we can make projections about the Lok Sabha seat based on Assembly poll results.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, the Left-Congress alliance was ahead of the TMC in 6 Lok Sabha seats – Raiganj, Murshidabad, Malda Uttar, Malda Dakshin, Baharampur and Jangipur. These also happen to be the seats held by the Congress and the Left in the Lok Sabha.

The vote share and seat projection by C-Voter’s survey in January 2019, shows that the Left and Congress have both lost ground since 2016. While much of the Left’s “anti-TMC” vote has gone to the BJP, some of the Congress’ votes are said to have shifted to the TMC. According to the survey, the combined vote share of the Left Front and the Congress is 7.8 percent less than the BJP and 19.7 percent less than the TMC.

In terms of regions, the Congress and Left are ahead of the BJP in only North Bengal.

However, if there is a Left-Congress alliance, it could be in a position to reclaim the Opposition space from the BJP. This is what happened in the 2016 Assembly elections, in which the two fought as allies.

If we extrapolate the results of the Assembly elections at the Lok Sabha level, it emerges that the BJP failed to reach the first or second position in any of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal. The Left-Congress alliance was ahead in 6 seats and stood second in 36. The Trinamool’s position was the reverse – it led in 36 seats and stood second in 6.

Therefore a Left-Congress alliance could potentially push the BJP back yet again, even though it has made substantial gains since 2016, mainly at the expense of the Left.

This becomes even clearer if we go seat wise. In several seats, the Left and Congress put together are in a position to give a tough fight to the TMC. Fourteen seats should be watched particularly closely. These include three types of seats:

1. Seats where the combined vote share of Left and Congress was more than that of the TMC as well as the BJP in both the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2016 Assembly elections: Baharampur, Jangipur, Malda Dakshin, Malda Uttar, Murshidabad and Raiganj.
2. Seats where the combined vote share of Left and Congress is more than TMC and BJP in the Lok Sabha polls but not the Assembly polls: Alipurduars, Birbhum, Jalpaiguri, Krishnagar and Purulia.
3. Seats where the combined vote share of Left and Congress is behind the TMC in both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls by an extremely narrow margin. More seats can be included in this category, but we have chosen three where the difference was 1 percent or less in the Lok Sabha elections: Bardhaman Purba, Cooch Behar and Diamond Harbour.

At least seven of these seats are also being eyed by the BJP: Malda Dakshin, Malda Uttar, Raiganj, Purulia, Krishnanagar, Alipurduars and Cooch Behar. So, a Congress-Left alliance could complicate matters for the party.

The BJP would hope that at least in the two Malda seats and Raiganj, the possible alliance leads to a split in Muslim votes between the Congress-Left and the TMC. But the Left holding ground anywhere in Bengal is bad news for the BJP as most of its gains have come at the Communists’ expense.

On the other hand, the Congress’ prospects will be harmed due to the defection of several functionaries, such as Malda Uttar MP Mausam Noor, to the TMC.

It remains to be seen whether the Left and Congress do end up forming an alliance. One faction of the state Congress – led by Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury – is said to be in favour of an alliance with the Left. But Congress President Rahul Gandhi will need to weigh his options carefully. On one hand, the Congress has to stay relevant in West Bengal, which is the third-largest state in India in terms of Lok Sabha seats. On the other hand, he needs to maintain a cordial relationship with Mamata Banerjee, who is poised to emerge as a key player in the Lok Sabha elections.